2019 Pick ‘Em Contest: Week 5

Holy smokes that bye week made it feel like it’s been a whole off-season between games.  The conference took a ding after Linfield and Whitworth dropped to Redlands and Chapman.  Pacific took one on the chin against CLU and PLU forgot the offense in Tacoma. Fox, L&C, Willamette, and UPS came away with wins against the lesser half of the SCIAC as all the home teams would get the wins in this first annual NWC/SCIAC battle bowl. Yeah, it was a 50/50 split but when your top teams lose to their top teams, it was a bad week for the NWC.

What does that mean?  It means that nobody in the NWC is getting an at-large playoff bid and the only true way to get into the NCAA’s is winning the NWC crown outright. The playoffs for the conference begin this Saturday with the opening of NWC play.

It’s shaping up to be an interesting week of play as Whitworth should get a dose of feel good medicine with Willamette visiting, we'll talk about Linfield vs Pacific tomororw, and then you have two other games that could go either way with GFU/UPS and L&C/PLU.  The GFU/UPS game is big for those team.  Both think they have a shot at being in the NWC title race this season, but one of these teams will be put behind the 8-ball after Saturday.

As a side note, UPS is getting dangerously into the George Fox smoke and mirrors game in 2015 with their home crowd attendance count.  They reported their attendance last weekend at 1,782 but their home stands toward the end of the first half (in a TIGHT game) looked like this. 

My daughter’s 3rd grade soccer game would give that crowd a run for their money.  If a politician saw that attendance number they would probably say “That might be a little too much, Loggers.”  Even Fox would think this a reach.

Let’s get to the games!

2019 Northwest Conference Games of the Week

Whitworth (1-1) over Willamette (1-1) (at Whitworth): Coming off that hard loss at Chapman, the Pirates are in the same boat as Linfield, run the table or sit at home during the playoffs. I’m expecting the Rats to bounce back in a get right game against the Bearcats.  Willamette has shown some big improvement on offense but they’ve played two terrible teams in doing so. However, the Whitworth defense hasn’t exactly been world beaters either in giving up 30.5 PPG.  I’ll be curious to see if Willamette can get some points on the board but I’m not expecting it. Rats roll in the Pine Bowl.

Lewis & Clark (1-1) over Pacific Lutheran (1-1) (at PLU): Like I wrote in the last pick ‘em, Lewis and Clark is going to be that team that I just can’t pin down.  They lay an egg on offense in game 1 and then put up 44 the following week.  So I don’t know if that’s a case of getting their legs under themselves with a new system, the level of competition, playing at home, or just a mixture of all of the above.  PLU on the other hand started a freshman QB and had an abysmal day of offense at Claremont (157 total yards).  So I don’t know if the game 1 starter (Bryce Missey) is still out with an injury or not and that matters.  I’m going to take L&C based on the experience factor but that probably means PLU will win 17-0.

George Fox (1-2) over Puget Sound (2-1) (at UPS): The George Fox offense has been terrible so far in 2019.  The Bruin offense has only scored six offensive TD’s in three games and are only averaging 274 yards of offense per game.  The offense is what UPS is supposed to be known for but is only averaging 18.7 points per game and this is with some legit offensive talent.  It’s been curious to see an offense finish 2018 with such a flourish, and return most of that group, have such a slow start to 2019.  Curious. The reason I’m going to take Fox is this number right here: 204.7.  That’s the rushing yardage allow by the Loggers per game and running the ball is what Fox wants to do.  The Loggers can win this game if they can hit the big play in the passing game but if Fox can make the Loggers scuffle on offense, then the Bruins will get the win.

Week 5 NWC Power Rankings

1. Whitworth:   Champ until proven otherwise
2. Linfield:   Have some major improving if they want to contend
3. George Fox:   Defense and Special Teams is carrying the Bruins
4. Puget Sound: AJ Johnson is a stud.
5. Pacific:  Rough outing at CLU but still have good pieces
6. PLU:   Disappointing loss at CMS but they play hard.
7. L&C:    Not going to be an easy out.
8. Willamette:  The offense has greatly improved under their new staff.