Friday, October 5, 2012

2012 NWC Pick 'Em: Week 6

Enjoy the Bye and we'll see you next week.

So close to getting that Platteville over Whitewater game last week but a broken collarbone to UW-Platt’s QB early in the game helped UWW get back into the action and pull out a narrow 27-26 win. Couple that miss with Simpson getting over on Wartburg and that led WC11 to be 5 out of 7 last week with my picks and brought my season total to 28 out of 36 for a mediocre 77.7%. The West Region and National games have just been killing me this season as I’ve been blazing hot with the NWC games but keep getting dinged with close losses on the out of conference games. It’s getting to that point where I’m going to have to take a few chances in order to get back into it. Those chances might vault me right back into the mix or send me down to the bottom of the barrel faster than you can say “sweep right” on 4th and inches.

Let’s get down to business. HIT THE MUSIC!

Northwest Conference Games

Willamette (4-0) over Whitworth (5-0) (at Whitworth): Northwest Conference game of the week and it isn’t even close. Willamette is starting to sniff around the top 25 with their high flying offense and bendable but making enough plays defense to start their season off great. Whitworth is also 5-0 on the season but has remained unblemished but scuffling along against not that great of opposition. My gut tells me that Whitworth is going to put a saddle on Ronnie Thomas’ back and try to ball control and hit the Bearcats defense in the one area where they haven’t been stellar (rush defense). Willamette on the other hand is going to try to take the ball away and put it up in the air early and often. I think this is going to be a good football game but to me Willamette seems like they have a more complete team and I’m going to give them the nod here.

Puget Sound (0-4) over Pacific (1-3) (at UPS): Now you might not think taking a no win team over a one-win team isn't that big of deal but ALL of the action on the NWC pick ‘em board is heavy on Pacific. I’m the lone cat that thinks UPS is going to get one over on the Boxers. While the Loggers defense is terribly terrible the UPS offense does have some pop. Pacific is a growing team that has had good stretches of play but I think there is a lack of maturity that will be in play this weekend. Not saying the Pacific players are “pull my finger” immature but I feel the players on their roster are still learning that just because you played someone close or beat them the previous year doesn’t carry much water this season (see Simon Frasier). Pacific hammered UPS last season for homecoming so I’m hoping the Boxers have their eye off the ball this week and it allows UPS to sneak one out.

Pacific Lutheran (1-2) over Lewis & Clark (4-0) (at L&C): If you look at the records then it would look like the Pios would be home favorites but that couldn’t be further from the truth. Granted, L&C did beat PLU last season up at Sparks but to me PLU has significantly improved from last year (stating the obvious). They’ve played and competed well against the two best teams on the West Coast (and maybe possibly West Region) and put a good beating on Redlands on the road. PLU is legit. L&C is a vastly improved program from a few seasons ago. No doubt about that. However, like last season, they’ve feasted on Division III after thoughts. I don’t think L&C’s defense will have enough talent to cover all the Lutes are offering and while L&C might get some on offense it won’t be enough.

West Region Game of the week:

#10 Bethel (4-0) over Concordia-Morehead (4-0) (at Bethel): HUGE game in the west region and in the MIAC. Both of these teams are well-respected programs out of the MIAC and are playing to get a shot at what I think is a slightly over-rated St. Thomas team (looking at you AFCA poll). I was *this close* to taking the Cobbers….in fact I’m making a change midstream. I’m reversing my decision and going to go with the Cobbers to get it done over Bethel!!!!!!

National Games of the week:

#6 Wesley (3-1) over #15 Birmingham-Southern (5-0)  (at Wesley): Birmingham-Southern is a up and coming program out of the South region that has been steadily improving since starting their program in 2007 and they’re playing their biggest game in program history this weekend as they make the trip to Dover to face Wesley. BSU is going to continue to make their mark in D3 but I think they’re going to get a stiff lesson on what a D3 elite looks like after the Wolverines get through with them.

#7 Salisbury (3-1) over #9 St. John Fisher (4-0) (at SJF): Nothing much to say here. Two teams that are on the East Coast that I don’t care about. I’ll go with the Steak College.

2 comments:

Dan H said...

Always Fun and funny 11. :)

WildcatSpread40 said...

Very interesting predictions. In regards to the Lewis & Clark-PLU one, I fail to see why you've been so harsh on L&C. They may not be the most physically talented football team, but they're fun to watch, and they were one game shy of winning the NWC last season. PLU is capable of beating L&C, but you're dismissing the Pios a little too fast; let's wait until PLU actually beats them before making such bold declarations.