Friday, October 1, 2010

Week 4: NWC Pick 'ems

Wildcat11 is feeling it so far during the 2010 pick 'em season as I went 5 for 5 last week to bring my season total up to 22 -25 (88%).  Not too bad considering that I stunk up the joint last year.  However, this week is when things get tricky with some tough NWC, regional, and national games of the week.  So WC11 sat down and ran the numbers though the ADvantage database to come up with possible outcome and here are this weeks winners:

Northwest Conference Games:

Pacific Lutheran over Puget Sound (at PLU): I think this is a no brainer as PLU should win big over their Tacoma rivals.  The 'Lutes have the experience and a very sound passing game on their side and UPS hasn't played anybody of note yet.  Compounding the issue for the loggers is that Puget Sound has no run game to speak of and Trevor Fox will be lurking in the PLU defensive backfield.  Lives will be ruined as the legend of T.Fox grows.  GAMEFACE!

Lewis and Clark over Pacific:  Lewis and Clark is showing folks something as they have found their offensive catalyst for the next few years in Quaterback Keith Welch.  The Pios have started to shrink the gap of past years.  I'd be surprised to see Pacific win a game this season but again what do you expect?  This is a program that will be decent soon but they are going to get chewed up this year.  Enjoy it while you can L&C.

Menlo over Whitworth:  The Rats defense continues to play sound football but I don't see the Rats have enough offense to get over on a now 3-1 Menlo team.  The Oaks have taken advantage of their newly found NAIA status and have shown they are a very good 4th quarter team.  I'm not seeing a blow out here but for the Oaks to methodically put this one away in the 2nd half.

West Region Games of The Week:

#22 St. John's over #4 St. Thomas (at SJU):  If you thought Willamette and Linfield didn't like each other we have nothing on the hate that is between these two programs and schools.  UST is the program on the rise and looks to be replacing SJU as "the team" in the MIAC and I don't think SJU fans are very happy about it.  UST has the flashy young coach, the high ranking, the new upscale facilities (money), and talent but the thing they don't have is a win over SJU in over 10 years.  I'm betting on the "big brother" factor here and for SJU to pull out the unexpected win over a favored UST.

#24 Cal Lutheran over Redlands (at UR): This was a tough one to call.  CLU had the bye week after the hangover loss to PLU and Redlands has kicked off the season with an impressive 3-0 start.  I'm betting on all of the new CLU parts starting to come together and that DANIEL Mosier is healthy and gets a lot of touches for CLU.  The problem for the Kingsmen is their defense and how Linfield and PLU hung up a combined 77 points in the first two games.

National Game of the Week:

#22 Wheaton over #21 Illinois Wesleyan (at Wheaton):  Another game that I don't know much about.  I'm pretty much shooting in the dark here but Wheaton looks like they have the more impressive wins and they are the home team so I'll scoop them up for the win.

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